Will the AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?

Resolves YES if the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) holds at least half of all seats in the newly elected Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt (an absolute majority) after the state election on 6 September 2026, and NO otherwise. Settled on the official certified final result published by the Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt (state returning officer). Note the seat mechanics: seats are allocated proportionally only among parties clearing the 5% threshold, so an absolute seat majority can emerge from roughly 41% of the vote (the AfD level in late-July 2026 polling, versus about 24% for the CDU) if enough smaller parties — SPD, Greens, FDP, BSW, Die Linke — fall below 5%. If the AfD is the largest party but short of half the seats, this resolves NO.

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